A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
